Zoning and Historical Development in North Carolina

Overview

Zoning, a land-use policy tool, regulates the type, intensity, and location of development in over 95% of U.S. cities. Since its inception in 1916, zoning has been leveraged for wide-ranging objectives, from identifying conservation areas to improving human health. Despite century-long use, zoning’s influence on impervious surface is uncertain, resulting in under- or mis-utilization in models of landscape change. We investigate zoning’s impact on impervious surface across two space-time scales to capture zoning’s local nuance and temporal variability. Statewide, across North Carolina (NC), we examine how historical impervious surface change (2001–2023, measured using National Land Cover Database [NLCD] fractional impervious surface) relates to current (2023) zoning. Locally, in Brunswick County—NC’s fastest-growing county—we trace zoning and its effects on impervious surface (measured combining NLCD and land use parcels) over 20 years (2004–2023). We analyzed 11 zoning districts (grouped by use and density; e.g., Low-Density Residential) to identify which incentivized or restricted future development. Statewide, we used multilevel logistic regression (data nested by county to account for local planning variability) to determine which zoning districts are most closely associated with impervious surface change, while controlling for additional influences such as population size and infrastructural characteristics. For Brunswick County, we fitted a panel regression to assess the causal influence of zoning changes (i.e., rezonings) on impervious surface. Statewide, Planned-Use and Mixed-Use zoning districts exhibit the highest probability of impervious surface, while Conservation and Low-Density Residential districts have the lowest. In Brunswick County, similar trends emerge, with areas rezoned to Planned-Use showing the greatest increases in impervious surface cover. Statewide and locally, Conservation districts show higher impervious surface cover through time than Low-Density Residential, despite stricter development restrictions. Ultimately, by identifying when and where zoning incentivizes impervious surface, our findings enable better allocation of future development in regional land change models.